On 29 April I posted a note about possible Holyrood election results with this table:
On the same basis of comparison – turnout and proportion of votes cast for each party, I can amend that last row with the real result as follows (no fancy graphics this time):
Result 55.6 46.5 25.9
(Figures from BBC web site)
I assumed on 29 April that ‘the SNP’s forecast 53% of constituency votes is a rough surrogate for those voting who might want Scotland to be separate from the UK. ‘ Now, of course, it turns out that they got 46.5% of constituency votes and making the same assumption the proportion of the total electorate (voters and non-voters) who have an appetite for independence would be only 25.9%, lower than any of my pre-election guesses.
I don’t know if the 25.9% is an accurate reflection of what I claim. It might be higher, less likely it might be marginally lower. But either way it doesn’t look good for the SNP and the 50+% their leader has said she wants to see in a run of opinion polls before even arguing for another referendum. Combine that with the fact that as I write they may not even have a majority of seats in Holyrood and you can draw your own conclusion.
I can’t say I look forward to another five years of SNP government (majority, minority or in coalition) but maybe for once they’ll settle down to what they could be – a reasonable party of UK regional government. I live in hope.
I don’t pretend this is a deep analysis but the figures I report are perhaps enough to discourage further contact from the nationalist on Twitter who characterised me after my last post on the subject as a ‘desperate yoon, lol.’
One final thought, which I hope you will understand as a comment against one party and their hubris rather than a comment for another. It’s not so long ago the SNP talked self-confidently about making Scotland a ‘Tory-free zone.’ I don’t expect we’ll hear much of that one again.