The Holyrood election result and the appetite for independence

On 29 April I posted a note about possible Holyrood election results with this table:

holyrood 2016 predition

On the same basis of comparison – turnout and proportion of votes cast for each party, I can amend that last row with the real result as follows (no fancy graphics this time):

Result                                             55.6                          46.5                          25.9

(Figures from BBC web site)

I assumed on 29 April that ‘the SNP’s forecast 53% of constituency votes is a rough surrogate for those voting who might want Scotland to be separate from the UK. ‘ Now, of course, it turns out that they got 46.5% of constituency votes and making the same assumption the proportion of the total electorate (voters and non-voters) who have an appetite for independence would be only 25.9%, lower than any of my pre-election guesses.

I don’t know if the 25.9% is an accurate reflection of what I claim. It might be higher, less likely it might be marginally lower. But either way it doesn’t look good for the SNP and the 50+% their leader has said she wants to see in a run of opinion polls before even arguing for another referendum. Combine that with the fact that as I write they may not even have a majority of seats in Holyrood and you can draw your own conclusion.

I can’t say I look forward to another five years of SNP government (majority, minority or in coalition) but maybe for once they’ll settle down to what they could be – a reasonable party of UK regional government. I live in hope.

I don’t pretend this is a deep analysis but the figures I report are perhaps enough to discourage further contact from the nationalist on Twitter who characterised me after  my last post on the subject as a ‘desperate yoon, lol.’

One final thought, which I hope you will understand as a comment against one party and their hubris rather than a comment for another. It’s not so long ago the SNP talked self-confidently about making Scotland a ‘Tory-free zone.’ I don’t expect we’ll hear much of that one again.

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One Response to The Holyrood election result and the appetite for independence

  1. This result will surely mean that a second referendum is off the agenda for the duration of this parliament. To get it through Holyrood, never mind persuading Westminster to tear up the Edinburgh Agreement, they now need the support of the Scottish Greens. They say on their website that:

    ‘The timing of the referendum should be determined by public appetite: Scotland should decide, when Scotland wants to decide.
    In assessing public appetite for a second referendum we will respect new kinds of citizen-led initiatives – for example, a call for a referendum signed by up to 1 million people on the electoral register.’

    https://greens.scot/campaign/independence?q=campaign/independence

    The total number of constituency votes of the SNP and Greens was just under 1,060,000 and the list total for those two and RISE was just under 1,115,000. Hard to get 90% of your supporters to sign a petition.

    Liked by 2 people

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